Civitas Review Online » Polling

Oh Fitzy…

Chris Hayes — Fri, 23 Jul 2010 19:56:43 +0000

I try not to respond to most inane ramblings by Chris Fitzsimon over at the NC Justice Center, but since he’s decided to distort the truth and omit critical pieces of information about our polling, I figured it was time.

Fitzsimon has been a bit flustered the past few months that we at Civitas do not send out press releases on every single poll question we ask. Considering that our polling is 35-40 questions in length each month, the mountains of press releases we’d have to produce would be unrealistic. Instead, we choose to highlight the key results in the poll through individual releases and then publish the entire results of the poll a few weeks later. Apparently that’s not good enough for him.

Now, this week Fitzsimon attempts to compare Obama’s favorability numbers from our May poll to our June poll — saying that Obama’s number’s “jumped 15 points.” On the surface, that is true. But Fitzsimon is misleading the readers of his column into thinking the polls are the same, when in fact they were conducted by two different pollsters (May by National Research Group, June by Tel Opinion Research) using two completely different likely voter screens. Fitzsimon knows this because he reads our press releases thoroughly and it’s stated right there in each one who the pollster is and what the methodology for that poll is. So in this case, he’s not lying, he’s just intentionally omitting facts to attempt to discredit Civitas polling.

Second, in an attempt to completely grasp at the last straw of his dignity, Fitzsimon attempts to say that including “leaners” in head-to-head matchups is somehow inappropriate. Again, Fitzsimon knows better and knows that this is a common practice in polling to allow undecided voters to choose which way they are favoring.

At the end of the day, Fitzsimon and the lefties have no choice but to run down Civitas polling simply because they don’t like the results. In true Clintonesque fashion, he can’t win philosophical arguments so he turns to the politics of personal (or in this case, institutional) destruction. How sad.

WRAL/SUSA Poll Explores Cell Phone Only Polling

Chris Hayes — Wed, 21 Jul 2010 19:14:06 +0000

WRAL released a new statewide poll last week conducted by SurveyUSA which included in its sample, respondents that are believed to be “Cell Phone Only” (CPO) voters. And the findings of the behaviors and impacts on including these voters is rather surprising. Full results of poll here.

According to best estimates, somewhere between 20-25% of the population of the US is CPO — giving up their land-based telephones for good. Given that conducting telephone polls requires actually getting someone to answer the telephone, the rise in CPO voters has caused a bit of consternation in the polling community as they react to this development. Many, if not all, pollsters are struggling to figure out how to account for these CPO voters in their samples and what are the consequences of not including them in the survey.

Lucky for us, WRAL decided to test the behavior of CPO voters in their latest poll with Survey USA. Overall, CPOs don’t affect the results one bit. The results with 25% of the voters being CPO was Burr leading Marshall 46%-36%. If you removed all the CPOs, Burr leads 47%-37%. Basically unchanged.

Additionally, only 95 (38%) of the CPO respondents were likely voters this fall.

One poll does not a trend make, but this poll seems to indicate that either including or excluding CPO households doesn’t really matter right now. As this number continues to climb, and as the average age of those going CPO goes up as well, things may (and probably will change).

But for this year, it appears that figuring out likely voters is more important in getting an accurate poll than going out of the way to include cell phone users.

**Full disclosure: The Civitas Institute has contracted SurveyUSA to conduct polling for our organization as well.

Legislative District Polling from This Week

Chris Hayes — Fri, 09 Jul 2010 17:09:15 +0000

In case you missed any of our press releases on this week’s polling of competitive state House and Senate districts links are below:

SD 19: Republican Wesley Meredith leads Democratic Senator Margaret Dickson 42%-38%.

HD 51: Republican Mike Stone leads Democratic Representative Jimmy Love 47%-43%.

HD 25: Republican Jeff Collins leads Democratic Representative Randy Stewart 45%-37%.

SD 25: Democratic Senator Bill Purcell leads Republican challenger Jason Phibbs 48%-40%.

HD 6: Republican Bill Cook leads Democratic Representative Arthur Williams 43%-41%.

We’ll dig into the numbers and put out some deeper analysis next week.

District Polling Roundup

Chris Hayes — Fri, 25 Jun 2010 18:44:33 +0000

In case you missed any of our releases on state legislative polling (you can sign up here), here’s the rundown from this week:

In HD 116 (Buncombe County), a rematch from 2008, Republican Tim Moffitt leads Democratic incumbent Jane Whilden 45-38.

HD 103 (Mecklenburg County) is an open seat to replace the retiring Republican Representative Jim Gulley. Republican Bill Brawley leads Democrat Ann Newman 45-39.

Finally, in HD 36 (Wake County), incumbent Republican Nelson Dollar starts out with a very large lead over challenger Democrat Robin Anderson 52-30.

HD 103 and 116 had the largest Democratic gains of any Republican held seat in 2008. All three are suburban districts in large urban counties that were carried by Obama. If there was any residual Obama effect from 2008, we would see it in these districts.

64% Favor Arizona Immigration Law

Katie Trout — Thu, 03 Jun 2010 19:32:33 +0000

Sixty-four percent of North Carolina voters favor the new law in Arizona which tracks federal law and allows local law enforcement to arrest illegal immigrants for being in the state illegally according to new Civitas poll results. Twenty-five percent said they oppose it, and 11 percent said they were not sure.

As the debate continues surrounding the legislation, 17 states are now in the process of filing their own versions of Arizona’s SB 1070 law: Arkansas, Idaho, Indiana, Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, Nevada, New Jersey, Ohio, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Carolina, Texas and Utah.

On the local level, 58 percent of North Carolina voters said they think the state should pass a similar law to Arizona’s. Thirty-two percent disagreed and oppose enacting such a law and nine percent said they didn’t know.

And further highlighting the discussion, just last month the Pew Research Center found that the majority of Americans approve of the Arizona law. Fifty-nine percent approved of the law while 32 percent disapproved. Pew’s figure jumped to 73% of respondents approving of requiring people to produce documents verifying their legal status if asked for by police.

The Civitas poll also revealed bipartisan support for Arizona’s immigration law as Republicans favor it 84 percent-7 percent. Unaffiliated voters support it by a 65 percent to 25 percent margin. And half of Democratic voters (50 percent) favor the law while only 38 percent oppose it.

The Federation for American Immigration Reform estimates that illegal immigrants cost North Carolina taxpayers over $17.7 billion every year. As we struggle with record high unemployment numbers and unsustainable debt figures, it remains to be seen whether state leaders will respond to pressure from citizens to enforce immigration policies in the state that federal government has failed to enforce. (60 percent believe it is the Federal government’s responsibility to enforce immigration and 91 percent give them a fair or poor rating) Voters on both sides are clear, however, that something must be done.

Full poll results and crosstabs here

Over Half of NC Voters Support Offshore Drilling

Katie Trout — Wed, 02 Jun 2010 21:02:41 +0000

A recent Civitas poll finds that 56 percent of North Carolina voters support drilling off the state’s coast for oil and natural gas. Thirty-seven percent were opposed and 7 percent had no opinion.

Support for oil exploration off the coast has remained consistently strong in Civitas polling results. The May 2009 poll found 71 percent of voters in support of offshore oil exploration; though voters are clear that the oil rigs should be out of sight from the shoreline.

The numbers climb higher to 74 percent in support of drilling if voters find out that the deposits are mainly cleaner, safer natural gas which does not cause the environmental or safety problems of oil if there is a leak or spill.

And despite the recent catastrophic oil spill in the Gulf, only 12 percent of voters’ opinions changed in saying they supported it before the spill but now oppose it. Fifty-seven percent continue to support drilling for oil and natural gas even as the cleanup effort continues.

A new oil rig off the coast of North Carolina may still be a ways off, however, as state legislators are considering a bill that would adjust the listed pros and cons of drilling submitted by a legislative committee in 2009. The group will meet with the Governor on Thursday, June 3 to discuss offshore drilling and its effects on the state.

North Carolina voters understand the benefits that offshore drilling would have on the state’s economy which is currently struggling with record unemployment.

Full poll results and crosstabs here

Collecting DNA from Felons

Chris Hayes — Tue, 25 May 2010 18:18:14 +0000

One of the seemingly more interesting bills making its way through the General Assembly this week is HB 1403, sponsored by Reps. Wil Neumann (R-Gaston), Pearl Burris-Floyd (R-Gaston), Darrell McCormick (R-Yadkin) and Thom Tillis (R-Mecklenburg) which would allow for a DNA sample to be taken from every person arrested on a felony charge.

I’m not going to get into the civil liberties vs. security debate right now, but we polled this very question back in our February statewide survey.

Attorney General Roy Cooper recently announced a plan to collect DNA samples from every one arrested on felony charges in North Carolina before going to trial and enter that information into a statewide database. Do you support or oppose this idea?

Support – 60%
Oppose – 29%
Not Sure – 11%

Obama Favorability Turns Negative

Chris Hayes — Thu, 22 Apr 2010 20:41:11 +0000

While other polls had his job approval turning negative a few months ago, it wasn’t until this month, after the passage of the health care bill, that President Obama’s personal favorability rating among North Carolina voters turned negative as well — checking in this month at 44% favorable, 45% unfavorable for a net -1 favorability rating.

Our poll last month was taken a few days before the health care bill was passed by the US House of Representatives and Obama’s favorability rating was +9 then (48 fav, 39 unfav). So he’s seen a net 10 point decline in just the past four weeks. The only thing that can explain this is voter opposition to his health care bill.

While opposition to health care (and many of his other proposals) has been strong in North Carolina, it hadn’t effected his personal favorability rating until now. Obama has been able to pride himself on the fact he’s a likable guy and voters had been able to separate those warm personal feelings towards Obama with their dislike for his policies. This is no longer the case.

Full press release here.

Fancy chart below.

Support for “Reform” Does Not Equal Support for Obamacare

Chris Hayes — Mon, 22 Mar 2010 14:29:52 +0000

There were many media outlets over the weekend touting the results of an Elon University poll (and I use the term poll very lightly, see my real thoughts on it here) that showed that 78 percent of North Carolinians supported reforming the health care system. Somehow, media members took that to mean that 78 percent supported Obamacare. That’s the furthest thing from the truth.

Just because one supports reform of the current system does not mean support for the bill that was passed last night.

We here at Civitas and many other free-market people certainly agree that the health care system needs reform, and would probably be included in that 78 percent who agreed. However, our reform ideas are certainly not contained in the Obamacare bill: more HSAs, less mandates, equalizing the tax treatment on individual vs. business purchase of health insurance among others. (Want more? Read Civitas’ recommendations here.)

In fact, if you read the actual poll released by Elon University you find that of the 78% who support reforming the current system, 48% of those respondents say government isn’t doing enough. Thus, only 37% of North Carolinians express support for the current proposal. The other 63% responded something along the lines of: “Government going to far” or “Not the government’s responsibility.”

We released our latest polling on Friday that showed 50% of North Carolinians are opposed to Obama’s health care reform proposal with only 39% supporting it. Don’t believe us? Take a look at the poll released by Democratic polling firm PPP that said 58% of North Carolinians opposed the measure.

So let’s not confuse voters’ support for reforming the current system to their support, or lack thereof, for Obama’s plan. Those two things are not the same.

Tiger Woods More Popular than Bev Perdue

Chris Hayes — Wed, 03 Mar 2010 19:04:30 +0000

I know, it’s a running joke, right… But according to a new poll by ABC News, Tiger Woods’ favorable rating is higher than that of our own Gov. Bev Perdue.

In a basic measure of popularity, just 39 percent express a favorable opinion of Woods
overall, essentially unchanged from its level just before his apology and still vastly below its
peak, a remarkable 88 percent nearly 10 years ago.

According to our latest poll from February, only 38 percent of North Carolina voters had a favorable opinion of Perdue.

And if you remember back to last fall, Gov. Mark Sanford of South Carolina during the aftermath of his “hiking expedition” had higher poll numbers than Perdue.

So do voters really think sex scandals aren’t as bad as raising taxes, cutting education and slashing teacher pay? Or is there just something else about Gov. Perdue they just don’t like?