Civitas Review Online » Elaine Marshall

WRAL/SUSA Poll Explores Cell Phone Only Polling

Chris Hayes — Wed, 21 Jul 2010 19:14:06 +0000

WRAL released a new statewide poll last week conducted by SurveyUSA which included in its sample, respondents that are believed to be “Cell Phone Only” (CPO) voters. And the findings of the behaviors and impacts on including these voters is rather surprising. Full results of poll here.

According to best estimates, somewhere between 20-25% of the population of the US is CPO — giving up their land-based telephones for good. Given that conducting telephone polls requires actually getting someone to answer the telephone, the rise in CPO voters has caused a bit of consternation in the polling community as they react to this development. Many, if not all, pollsters are struggling to figure out how to account for these CPO voters in their samples and what are the consequences of not including them in the survey.

Lucky for us, WRAL decided to test the behavior of CPO voters in their latest poll with Survey USA. Overall, CPOs don’t affect the results one bit. The results with 25% of the voters being CPO was Burr leading Marshall 46%-36%. If you removed all the CPOs, Burr leads 47%-37%. Basically unchanged.

Additionally, only 95 (38%) of the CPO respondents were likely voters this fall.

One poll does not a trend make, but this poll seems to indicate that either including or excluding CPO households doesn’t really matter right now. As this number continues to climb, and as the average age of those going CPO goes up as well, things may (and probably will change).

But for this year, it appears that figuring out likely voters is more important in getting an accurate poll than going out of the way to include cell phone users.

**Full disclosure: The Civitas Institute has contracted SurveyUSA to conduct polling for our organization as well.

Elaine Marshall 2nd Quarter Report Found

Susan Myrick — Thu, 15 Jul 2010 21:54:04 +0000

It looks like candidates for federal office submit a campain disclosure report to the State Board of Elections. Here is Burr’s for this last Quarter.

I found Marshall’s report on the FEC website.

It looks like she has:

Latest Cash On Hand:	$186,353
Debts Owed By:	$71,500

Has Elaine Marshall Quit?

Susan Myrick — Thu, 15 Jul 2010 21:24:49 +0000

I had to ask a co-worker if Elaine Marshall was the candidate running against Richard Burr for his Senate seat? Burr has $6.3 million in the bank.

Then I called the State Board of Elections and they confirmed that the report on their site was the report that Marshall submitted.

Look at this report and let me know what I’m missing.

Secretary Marshall in Bed with Lobbyists?

John Eick — Thu, 01 Jul 2010 17:42:06 +0000

This past Tuesday, the North Carolina Democratic Party held a fundraiser in their headquarters that was attended by Gov. Bev Perdue, members of the Council of State, a handful of legislators (including Speaker Joe Hackney), and an unknown number of lobbyists. The gathering was held the same week that members of the General Assembly were debating ethics reforms and the state budget.

Secretary of State Elaine Marshall was also one of the guests attending the function. Curiously, Marshall’s office maintains a Lobbying Compliance Division, which directly regulates lobbyists. According to an article appearing in the News & Observer, Marshall was unsure that lobbyists would also be in attendance. While strolling into the fundraiser with Sen. Joe Sam Queen (D-Haywood), Marshall said, “I knew it was a fundraiser, but I didn’t know who was on the invitation list.”

A video of Secretary Marshall walking into the fundraiser with Sen. Queen can be seen below.

FoCAL point: wasteful spending

David Mofford — Thu, 17 Jun 2010 20:41:17 +0000

Next Tuesday, Democrats go to the polls to decide whether Secretary of State Elaine Marshall or former state senator Cal Cunningham will challenge incumbent US Senator Richard Burr in November’s general election. Though Marshall garnered 36 percent to Cunningham’s 27 percent in the first primary, North Carolina law allows for the trailing candidate to call for a runoff if the leading candidate fails to break the forty percent threshold.

The Charlotte Observer reports that the 2010 runoffs could cost North Carolinians up to five million dollars. In the last statewide runoff, only two percent of voters went to the polls. Cunningham, who claims fiscal responsibility on his campaign web site, could have made a lasting impression on North Carolina voters by stating that he could have called for a runoff but didn’t because it would be an unnecessary expenditure of taxpayer funds. Instead, he called for a runoff despite being soundly rejected by North Carolina Democrats the first time–spending up to five million of our taxpayer dollars in the process.

Whichever Democrat wins next Tuesday, he or she has a significant mountain to climb to defeat Senator Burr in November. According to a June 3 Rasmussen poll, Burr leads a hypothetical matchup with Marshall 50% to 36%, and a hypothetical matchup with Cunningham 47% to 35%.

Apparently PPP thinks it’s still 2008

Chris Hayes — Tue, 11 May 2010 23:43:19 +0000

Some people were shocked today by a poll released by Democratic polling firm Public Policy Polling that showed Republican incumbent Senator Richard Burr ahead of Democratic Secretary of State Elaine Marshall by only one point 43%-42%. That result made good headlines, but it has as much basis in political reality as Ronald Reagan coming back from the dead to run for President in 2012.

Let’s look inside the numbers and methodology a minute and show just where this poll goes off course and how it’s numbers are irrelevant.

First, it is a poll of ALL registered voters. There is no screen on the poll to determine if the respondent is even likely to vote in the 2010 election. This method was fine in 2008 when turnout was off the charts and it appeared everyone was going to vote, but in 2010, polling all registered voters is not an accurate election prediction model. Nobody thinks turnout is going to be anywhere near 2008 levels, why does PPP poll as if it is going to be? By not including a likely voter screen, this biases the poll heavily toward the Democratic side as Civitas polling (and just about every other polling firm) has shown Democratic voter enthusiasm is severely depressed while Republican enthusiasm is sky high.

Second, the percentage of African-Americans in the poll is 22%. Again, this was the turnout percentages of African-Americans in 2008, not anything close to what it is expected in 2010. Does PPP really think all those first-time Obama voters are going to come out and vote again in 2010? Well, that’s exactly what they are hypothesizing in their poll today. (African-American turnout in 2004 was a little under 19%, 2006 was around 17%).

Since African-Americans vote 95-97% Democratic, this poll artificially inflates the overall percentage Marshall receives by roughly 3-5 points on this statistic alone.

PPP’s poll today should actually be seen as fabulous news for Richard Burr, because even under the political environment in 2008 that PPP tests, Burr is winning. But 2010 is shaping up to be nothing like 2008 — the voter mood is completely different, Obama isn’t on the ticket and Democratic voters, especially young and minority, are not enthusiastic about voting.

Therefore, while this poll may have been relevant two years ago, it’s methodology does not fit the current political landscape.

Undecideds Rule Democratic Primary

Chris Hayes — Tue, 26 Jan 2010 16:08:05 +0000

In our poll this month, we asked Democratic and Unaffiliated voters if they had a preference in the Democratic Primary for the US Senate nomination, and by and large they do not have a preference yet. 75 percent of voters were undecided on any of the three announced candidates.

The breakdown was:

Marshall – 14%
Lewis – 7%
Cunningham – 4%
Undecided – 75%

I do have to point out, that in fairness, this is a poll of likely general election voters, not necessarily Democratic primary voters. But at this stage, none of the candidates have made a splash.

It is somewhat surprising too how low Cunningham is in the poll given how much attention was given to his wooing by the national Democratic Party. I guess it just goes to show how little average voters pay attention to things like that.

Ultimately, this race will probably be decided by whichever candidate can raise enough money to get on TV the earliest and the heaviest. It’s wide open now, but whoever puts the first TV ad up will probably jump out to a big lead.

Full press release here. Full crosstabs and the data here.

Burr Leads Marshall by 10

Chris Hayes — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 16:44:51 +0000

In our latest poll, we have Sen. Richard Burr leading NC Sec. of State Elaine Marshall 43.7% to 33.0%.

Burr is leading among Republicans 79-6 and among Unaffiliateds 47-24. Marshall leads with Democrats but by a much smaller margin 57-17.

In fact, Burr’s hardcore support — those who say they are definitely voting for him (33.2%) — is slightly larger than Marshall’s overall support.

While yes, Burr is below 50%, he’s still in a good position. His base is solidified, so he can spend the next year winning swing voters. Meanwhile, Marshall still has to get through a potentially crowded primary (especially if Etheridge and/or Wicker get in the race), solidify her base and then start winning over unaffiliated voters that are already breaking for Burr.

Full results and crosstabs here.