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Despite complaints from the left about the recently released Congressional district proposals, the maps would preserve a registration advantage for Democrats in 10 of 13 Congressional Districts. Democrats would hold more than half of the registered voters in 3 districts, 2 of which are minority-majority districts mandated by the Voting Rights Act. Few dispute that these districts are almost certain to remain Democratic.
Districts 3, 7, 8, and 13 would all be composed of at least 40% Democrats. Democrats in district 3 would only needed to combine slightly over 1% of other voters in order to win (D-3 has long been held by Walter Jones, a former Democrat turned Republican Congressman). Districts 2, 6, and 10 have competitive levels of registration, still with more Democrats than Republicans. Only Districts 5, 9, and 11 will have a registration advantage for Republicans, and even then, the Republican advantage does not exceed 9.6%.
Statewide data reveals that Democrats compose 44.3% of the voters in North Carolina, while Republicans makeup 31.5% and unaffiliated voters comprise 24% of the total voters.
Basically, there are NO districts where Republicans will not need the votes of independents to win, while Democrats will only need to retain their own voters or convince small numbers of independents to hold on to a majority of the Congressional delegation. Non-affiliated voters will be the key in nearly every race. Is this map gerrymandering? Hardly.
Click the map for a larger version
2 Comments on this post
Jul 13 at 15:26
I think you mean: “Only Districts 9,*5*, and 11 will have a registration advantage for Republicans, and even then, the Republican advantage does not exceed 9.6%.”
Jul 13 at 15:29
You are correct Jenna. I’ll correct it.